537AM: Rep. Rick Nolan has won in MN-08. But the GOP has gained control of the Minnesota House, it looks like by two or three seats. It was mostly rural seats that flipped.
1108: MN-07 has been called for Rep. Peterson. MN-08 and the state House both look promising, as far as I can tell, but I’m not waiting up for a couple more hours to be sure. Thank you to everyone who stopped by.
1037: John Kline is up by 20%, with 60% reporting. Insane. It’s almost as if Flip a District did more harm than good.
1029: The MN-08 race is tight – Rep. Rick Nolan is up by about 2%, with about 1/3 reporting – and Collin has a double-digit lead in MN-07 with half reporting.
1024: The GOP will probably win the Senate race in North Carolina (putting us at 46 barring a miracle in Alaska and/or the Louisiana runoff), and Rick Snyder has been reelected in Michigan.
1017: Rebecca Gagnon and, yes, Don Samuels have won the citywide Minneapolis school board seats.
1014: It’s been called for Governor Dayton!
1004: In the MN House, Yvonne Selcer has held 48A. I provided the link partly because I doubt I’ll stay up late enough to see the House totals through.
953: Scott Walker has won in Wisconsin. It’s entirely possible that the only Tea Party governor who’ll get booted was Pennsylvania. Maybe Kansas. Well, Minnesota had to suffer through two terms of Pawlenty to get its act together.
948: With about 35% in statewide Governor Dayton’s up by about 12 points, Steve Simon by 8 for SoS, and the other executive races are blowouts.
941: We’ve lost the Senate seat in Iowa, too. And Georgia has stayed GOP. Hopefully we won’t end any worse than 47.
928: Bad stuff. The GOP has won the Senate seat in Colorado, and Rick Scott has been reelected Florida governor. Apparently, South Florida did not come through, with turnout. Here in Minnesota, all of our incumbents are ahead, though in most cases with less than 20% reporting.
916: With 86/127 reporting the race for two citywide school board seats in Minneapolis, Rebecca Gagnon has 33.5%, Don Samuels 28.6%, Iris Altamirano 25.5%, Ira Jourdain 12.4%.
912: I’m sorry to have to report that incumbent Rich Stanek is winning huge in the Hennepin County sheriff’s race.
859: Two entries below, I spoke too soon. The AP has called Minnesota for Sen. Al Franken. Hear the anguished howling of Al-hating wingnuts? Sweet, ain’t it? Now, we’ll see about coattails.
855: From DKos:
No surprise: The AP is calling a runoff in LA-Sen. That happened once before in 2002, and Democrat Mary Landrieu pulled off a miracle victory that year. Can she do so again? Looking a lot harder this time.
850: In Minnesota, once we get up to around 30% of precincts reporting, I’ll start doing the same. We’re nowhere near that, yet.
820: I may as well put this out there. Remember how last year the Virginia governor’s race was far tighter than the polls indicated? The same thing is happening, right now, with the Senate race there, and losing it would be brutal. If we end with anything less than 46 Senate seats, there’s no guarantee we’ll take it back in 2016.
800: Senate races in general are going per the form book, which isn’t great, but the ones that will determine have yet to significantly manifest. We’ve won New Hampshire, lost Arkansas.
720: In general, when I have multiple things to note, I’ll start at the bottom and work my way up. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky) has a cold, dark soul, and he has won reelection. Pennsylvania has replaced its Tea Party governor, Tom Corbett. Don’t take this too seriously: there are indications that Dems are outperforming polling aggregates in more races than not.
I’ve put the previous body of this below the fold, and below the comments.
From Greg Laden: OH, I might as well make my prediction public at this point:
Whatever has been said about Democratic losses in this election, the outcome will not be as bad as suggested by the usual mainstream sources. Not saying how much not as bad. Just not as bad.
So far I’m seeing very few pickups, mostly holds, in the US House.
I’ll start, a little, when some of the East Coast stuff appears, but in fact the real action will be between about 9 and 11.
The ideal nationally is that Democrats hold the U.S. Senate, the House is a wash, we boot a bunch of Tea Party governors, and do OK with state legislatures (many of which are now gerrymandered rightward, as is the U.S. House, to a degree that would be illegal if we really lived in a true representative democracy). All of these are possible, to varying degrees, though admittedly far from sure things, at all, and at least in the first case frankly unlikely. Normally, red-staters love their incumbents, because they keep that federal money that props up their economies flowing in. But that is seemingly overwhelmed by the fact that some key incumbents, this time, share a political party with, among a still sadly high percentage of the populace in the South (and far from absent elsewhere), the most viscerally, irrationally hated and feared U.S. President since Lincoln.
(I don’t mean to imply by that last paragraph that right-wing attitudes toward President Obama are really grounded entirely in mindless, howling bigotry. I think in many cases it’s more like “OK, sometimes the liberals are going to be able to elect a president. But, a black guy named ‘Barack Obama?!’ WTF?!?!” The righties feel like by doing that we’re just contemptuously rubbing their noses in it, and it really bugs them.)
In Minnesota, it is entirely possible, though again no sure thing by any means, that we’ll shut the GOP out. If you’re reading this, and you call yourself progressive, and you haven’t voted, and the polls are still open, deal with it.
Our automatic comment processing system is still broken. If you comment, I will see it promptly, and will post it when I get a chance. The site has also been a little balky, now and then. If that happens tonight, please bear with us. Also, if you don’t want to wait on me or any of the other excellent livebloggers out there, I’m getting my state numbers from the SoS website, and national news at Daily Kos.