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2016 election results blog

by Dan Burns on November 8, 2016 · 1 comment

This isn’t going to be a machine-gun posting style “liveblog.” I’ll just be posting results of interest to progressives, especially in Minnesota, starting around 9PM. If you want to track anything in Minnesota up to the minute (I know the feeling) here’s where to start at the MN SoS website.
810PM: I’m gonna lay it on you straight: this night could get scary. We’ve probably lost Florida. Hillary can lose FL/NC/OH and still win if the firewall holds, and there are no apparent big diversions from the final polls yet.
855PM: Still too early.
1010PM: This is turning into a disaster. If you don’t know what I mean, check Daily Kos. For Minnesota results, this MinnPost dashboard looks convenient. I’m done.
Comment below fold.

From Mac Hall: There’s something in the water.
Ya gotta think that if just half the McMullin and Libertarians decided to vote for Republican, Trump would have won Minnesota. Trump lost by 43k and McMullin got 53k … and McMullin wouldn’t have been on the ballot if not for the NeverTrump movement.
No shock that Paulsen won … with all that cash and Strib endorsement … but a 13 point win is rather decisive when the turnout is pretty good (393k).
But a surprise in MN07 where Peterson won again … a little bit closer this time – 5 points versus 8 points in 2014. OK, you remember 2014 when RNCC spent all that money, yet still lost. This time, David Hughes – did anyone ever hear anything about his campaign … raised $17,085 this cycle … that’s less that what Paulsen would take in about three days. Turnout was okay at 330k. On a dollar/vote basis was about 11 cents per Hughes vote.
But the real shocker was in MN01 where after winning comfortable for years, Tim Walz barely beat Jim Hagedorn in a repeat contest. Walz got most of the newspaper endorsements but in the end 2,513 votes separated them … but the money difference was vast. Hagedorn did not get any help from the RNCC and a meager $1000 from John Kline, raising somewhat more that $341,000 … meaning his $/vote was about $2. BTW, I live in the district and got no mailers from either candidate although I did see a couple Walz commercials but never saw/heard Hagedorn’s ads)
Lewis beating Craig was also another race where the outcome did not depend on dollars being spent. It appears that having Independence Party candidate on the ballot allowed an option for some people. (FYI : Lewis’ fundraising was north of $873,000 … and will probably be in the range of what Mike Obermueller raised last cycle. Craig far outraised him and both candidates had a lot of money being spent by outside groups. Lewis dollar per vote would be roughly $5).
What MN01, MN02 and MN07 have in common is the rural area where Minnesota legislative candidates are predominantly GOP.
Not sure if its guns, God, Obamacare, or the EPA, but there appears to be something in the water that just brings people out to vote Republican. All three of these contests are ones where people could have presumed the DFLer was gonna win and just not bothered coming out to vote … but they did.
That might be the takeaway from this election … people did come out … and voted Republican … where now they control the state house.
This does not bode well for 2018 gubernatorial contest … if the MNGOP puts up a reasonable candidate, it could be lights out for the DFL.
( BTW, it seems that sitting Congressmen have many times tried to seek Governor’s slots … makes you think that if Erik Paulsen finds TrumpWorld and the Freedom Caucus too aggravating, would he bring his campaign war chest home (his cash on hand after this election could still be in the million dollar range).

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