A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll published late last week on Tom Hauser’s At Issue political analysis program, shows GOP, right wing incumbent Erik Paulsen with an eleven point lead over DFL endorsed challenger Terri Bonoff.
“After several months of withering attacks trying to tie him to Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, Erik Paulsen holds a commanding lead in his race with 3rd District challenger Terri Bonoff. In our exclusive KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, Paulsen leads Bonoff 49 percent to 38 percent. Another 13 percent remain undecided.”
Steven Schier, the ever available pundit from Carleton College, notes in the October 16, 2016 KSTP-TV News web article about the poll that voters are not associating Mr. Paulsen with Mr. Trump. That is clearly the case. Terri’s team needs to do a quick and major re-direction on what will work during the next three weeks.
The article does not mention the dump trucks of misleading, anti-Bonoff mailers that arrive at our Eden Prairie (CD 3) home or refer to the equally smelly and un-credible, anti-Bonoff spots that pop up on television and the internet.
This month Democratic Visions features a fifteen minute discussion between Terri Bonoff and Ted O’Brien and a Junk Yard Democrats’ video. With “He Talks the Line,” the boys re-purpose a Johnny Cash classic to comment on Mr. Paulsen’s record.
Here are the links – 15 Minutes with Terri Bonoff
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Comments below fold.
From Mac Hall: In MN03, the question being asked is : Do we fire Erik Paulsen? The SurveyUSA poll provides the answer in a question evaluating his performance … naturally, Republicans love him but 53% of independent voters think he is doing a good job (versus 26% who disapprove.)
Not really a surprise for the “Crafty Congressman” who has presented an image that defies his voting record. Paulsen has toured an uncountable number of craft brewers promoting his tax cut for craft brewers and a record number of schools — meeting kids that tell them Congressman Paulsen came by to read to them – legislative accomplishments including helping dogs (veterans dogs do not have to be “retired” overseas) and tax benefits for fallen police officers — yep, “Crafty” and it works.
Not only is he “Crafty”, Paulsen is also a FOUR MILLION DOLLAR candidate … last cycle, I was amazed when he broke $3 million, but he has ratcheting it up this time … by the end, don’t be surprised if he doesn’t exceed $5 million in donations. If you look at his donors, there are the medical device makers, drug makers, the insurance companies, the banks, etc … but also so many other Republicans that are sending their money to him. Clearly, the RNCC does not want to lose this seat.
IMO (which is from the First District, so I don’t know the lawn sign count), Bonoff is running a positive campaign … but it could be better … she should have a commercial acknowledging Paulsen’s efforts on sex trafficking while saying that she is proud of Amy Klobuchar’s efforts as well as all the House Democrats who worked on the issue, telling voters that she would have done the same … and more. Tell that Paulsen has a problem with Freedom Caucus members and that a Ryan speakership is not a foregone conclusion … to get things done for Minnesota, a better bet would be Bonoff. Ya gotta remind voters that the GOP House has still not passed a budget for the year that started on October 1st (we are running on another “continuing resolution”) and they are the party of the shutdown.
Paulsen will play his role as a “check on Clinton” and a Democrat controlled Congress. Except, two important facts — the dysfunctional House and a Senate that rules by the filibuster. The House is unlikely to tip to the Dems, so the intra-party fighting will be played out regularly. The Senate may tip … but by only a seat or two … and it is likely that any major issue will have a few Dems unwilling to go along with President Clinton. So, we don’t need a “check” … Minnesota’s Third District needs someone that will address our issues.
A Bonoff victory would take the Star-Tribune to endorse her forcing voters think about firing him — which will be difficult considering his strong approval record — heck, 16% of Democrats think he is doing a good job. If you can’t get DFLers to vote for Bonoff, how can you win ?
From Dog Gone: I’ve been a bit disappointed in Bonoff’s ads. She seems a great candidate, but I’m not sure she has been promoted to best possible effect.
In contrast, while not particularly fair or accurate, those ads against her have been brutally effective. I can only hope the voters see through them.
From Mac Hall: FYI : A survey conducted October 11th-13th, 2016 by Clarity Campaign Labs on behalf of House Majority PAC shows that Democratic challenger Terri Bonoff is gaining support in her race against incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen in Minnesota’s Third Congressional District.
“Terri Bonoff trails Erik Paulsen by 3% –within the margin of error- in the race for Congress. Bonoff gets the support of 39 % of the voters in the district, compared to 41% for Paulsen.”
OK … not a surprise, right … a Democratic poll suggests that Bonoff is “close”. BUT … it’s what is in the details that could make a difference.
“Bonoff’s lead among Democrats is improving rapidly and is now up to 80%. She also takes 6% of Republicans. Paulsen does have a lead with Independents, but 23% are undecided. Due to the collapse of the Republican brand in well-educated suburbs, thanks to their nominee, the district’s party ID now trends Democratic, with 38% identifying as Republicans and 46% as Democrats. Bonoff’s ability to further solidify Democratic votes and reach deeper into Paulsen’s support among Independents will be critical to her success on Election Day.”
Now that Paulsen has stated that his vote for President will not count (he plans to write in Marco Rubio — you know the guy whose claim to fame is denying funding for ACA “risk corridors” which led to insurance companies abandoning ObamaCare exchanges and MNsure — yet he knows that a write-in presidential candidate must file a written request with the secretary of state in order to have his or her votes tallied. Ya gotta think that some Trump supporters as well as the MN4McMullin folks (including Garage Logic’s Joe Soucheray) won’t like that … they may join Paulsen’s write-in philosophy and write-in Tim Sherno.
IF Bonoff can get her Democratic support up, and Minnesota Legislature candidates party unity, she can overcome his money lead. Of course, getting the endorsement from the Strib would help … especially after Bonoff got the endorsement of the suburban paper (MN Sun).