Quinnipiac has a long and inglorious history as the most erratic of the major pollsters. Just all over the place, cycle after cycle, and of late they’ve been exhibiting a considerable skew in favor of the righties.
That being said, maybe Ohioans do love Kasich. As far as I know the Koch machine doesn’t, for his pro-Medicaid expansion stance among other things, and they could go into Ohio if they wanted and knock that approval rating way down in a hurry. We know how that works.
Mac, the following mini-rant is absolutely not directed at you, or at the majority of Bernie supporters who I know to be cool and righteous. I just find myself ruminating along these lines too often, and I have just GOT to get it off my chest.
The poll showing Sanders ahead in New Hampshire is very, very iffy, commissioned by a right-wing outlet and done by an organization affiliated with an institution run by Andrew Card.
Which brings us to my huge problem with much of Bernie’s online support. Gleefully passing along every hit piece they see, responding with extreme sensitivity to even the mildest criticism or effort at correction, trolling everywhere they can…basically, they’re acting like Tea Partiers. That is, making it about their own obsessive, embittered, petty narcissism, rather than directing their energies in constructive and worthwhile ways on behalf of Bernie’s candidacy, or for that matter anyone or anything else.
Is Hillary my dream candidate? Of course not. Not in a thousand years. But she’s very likely going to be the next president, and I would like to see Dems get behind her and aim for a big wave election, top to bottom, on that basis. Thankfully, there will be plenty of time to get that together, when Bernie and the others drop out and endorse Hillary next March, after getting crushed on Super Tuesday.
I am open to being convinced that Bernie can win the general, and becoming a supporter on that basis. But it’s going to take a lot of convincing. Does the guy look presidential? Sadly, that matters. More than just about anything else, in fact.
The sad reality, and I don’t like it a damn bit better than any other progressive does, is that barring a literally miraculous change in the voting habits of young people we’re at least – at the very, very least – ten long years away from any kind of progressive takeover of federal governance. Left activists would do well to be aware of that, and steel themselves accordingly. Enjoy the wins we do get, which we deserve, and be aware that really better days are going to take a while, yet. That’s just the way it is.
You deserve a lot more than “brownie points” for watching that. I couldn’t do it unless unless I was generously paid. That that miserable drivel is considered worthy socio-political discourse by much of the populace, in contemporary America, both infuriates and saddens me.
“Probably a toss-up?” I assume you’re concerned about overconfidence. That’s valid.
Presumably you noticed whose mug adorns the top of the Think Progress article. It notes that Kline is expected to whip against A+, which probably isn’t going to pass anyway, though some version of more state control likely will.
Kline’s purpose in the House is to block things in his committee. When the real players get together to try to actually do something, he’s dross.
I’m waiting to see, if he does run again, whether a high and tight, boot-camp haircut will be part of the new mix.
That was part of the state government finance bill, which Dayton signed, while noting he would nonetheless work to have the part of it that targets Rebecca Otto’s office removed during the special session. I couldn’t find any indication that he plans to go after the anti-PCR crap as well. I suspect the longer term plan is to reinstitute it in 2017, when we’ll likely have majorities across the board in state government again. May have to deal with another roadblock, though, in DFL legislative leadership, if you know what I’m saying.
Yeah, right/wrong direction does suck, now that I went and looked. I don’t remember what I saw, that had me thinking otherwise.
– The only thing I see that could – might – lead to a GOP presidential win is a really sharp, serious, recession, beginning late 2015/early 2016. I’ll start worrying about that when Krugman and Stiglitz start predicting it.
– I totally support the right of the purity-martyr/concern-troll types (I’m not saying you’re one) to continue to dominate left social media, however relentlessly and repetitively. I think they play an important role. But I must note that they were proved wrong, very wrong, in 2012. Not that many have ever admitted it, that I’ve seen.
– I don’t think the national mood is “Angst and Ennui.” My data for that include POTUS approval, right-track/wrong-track, and consumer confidence. None of them scintillating, but all solid, all things considered. And most of the non-political people I interact with are not going through their days in anguish and despair, whatever you may see on AlterNet or wherever. They’re not unhappy, by any means.
– Elections now are all about one thing: whether Dems can get our voters to the polls. In presidential years, we generally do. And note that since the last sweet Dem wave in 2008, by November 2016 there will have been eight more years of demographic movement leftward, as so many Republican base voters aren’t with us any more.
This is well-argued.
I’d say right now that there’s at least an 80% chance that Hillary Clinton will be the next POTUS, and quite possibly by the largest popular vote margin since 1984. And she can most definitely raise the money.
Based on her photo, Catharine Richert is a young woman, early 30s if that, and it’s therefore statistically unlikely that she’s a g*d-damned Republican. But she could be. Whether she is or not, the thing is that MPR is corporate media – far better than most, but absolutely corporate nonetheless – and anyone who does a corporate media fact-check has to promote false equivalence, with the constant implication that the left has to twist things as much as the right in order to make a case.
Which is wrong; the facts indeed have a “liberal bias.” Most people really are better off in more progressive states, and/or when there’s a Democrat in the White House. Global climate change really is established fact. Bill O’Reilly really is a pathological liar. And so on and so forth.
Which means anyone with a job like Richert’s has a hard row to hoe. By promoting false equivalence (and Brett Neely, at MPR, does the same thing in the “Daily Digest”), one inevitably ends up looking like a fool, in the eyes of intelligent, knowledgeable people. But, they could find different jobs – pretty easily, in fact, in the liberal Minnesota metro.
Completely off topic, you certainly nailed it, about turnout, in your comment on OG Goldy’s predictions post at DKos, just before the election. I had no idea it would be that bad.
I mean the corrupt, despicable greedheads for whom you’re shilling.
Any further comments from you, or any other education deformer troll, will not be uploaded. So there’s no point in trying.
This has been happening after Mills, or the NRCC, already has started those “Guantanamo/ISIL/Nolan voted against the troops” TV ads. That being said, I don’t claim to be entirely sure what their motives are. Just some kind-of-informed speculation, on my part.
I haven’t seen compelling evidence that Romney had an affair in France, or anywhere else. But the car crash story is certainly for real, and bad.
Actually, I have a feeling that what I blockquoted hasn’t been updated since his campaign in 2012.
I used it because I’m sure the center of his economic “thinking” is still tax cut welfare for the rich. Some people don’t ever learn, and politically they’re called “conservatives.”
If you mean that you tried to get the interactive map to show up within your post, that’s hard to do, and I don’t know how.
If you mean that hyperlink in your post, it works. Takes a few seconds to appear.
Odd thing to fixate on. Or have you been chewed out by a judge, like in My Cousin Vinnie?
Your points are valid. I didn’t mean to suggest no mining effect, just that it was far, far short of what pro-mining forces and their media allies clearly hoped for.
I saw Brodkorb’s remarks, too. Of course he still has a major beef with a good deal of the MN GOP’s leadership. But I hope he’s right. That will be hugely demoralizing for Minnesota Republicans, if they win nothing this cycle.
This was shared on social media by Aaron Klemz:
How did Rebecca Otto do last night in CD8 and on the Range? After all, the conventional wisdom was that her no vote on state copper-nickel exploration leases and reasonable concerns about financial assurance for copper-nickel mining was political death in NE Minnesota, right?
– Otto won 75% of the vote in CD8, same as in CD1
– 80% of Duluth and 84% of Two Harbors voted for her
– 93% of Finland/Crystal Bay, the epicenter of the leasing issue, voted for Otto
– 66% of Hibbing, a town that was literally moved to make way for an iron mine voted for her
– 66% of Silver Bay, an iron mining company town with the “Rocky Taconite” statue voted for her
– Even in the heart of supposed “Dump Otto” territory, she came within 20 votes of winning a majority in Ely and the surrounding townships (Fall Lake, Eagles Nest, Stony River, and Morse)
– And she won majorities in Virginia (home of the Mesabi Daily News that endorsed Entenza), Mountain Iron (home to the largest taconite pelletizing operation in the U.S.), and Eveleth.
May have to do with low turnout and the favorites not seeing the need to campaign very hard at all. I don’t recall getting any Simon mailers.
You don’t agree with my suggestion, or you agree that the mining crowd isn’t as powerful as some think?