Here are a couple of things that I intellectually believe are true. But I just can’t bring myself to be confident, yet, that they will manifest by the next election as they should.
But the theory isn’t supported by the evidence. To the contrary, Trump’s base seems to be eroding. There’s been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now. (The decline in Trump’s strong approval ratings is larger than the overall decline in his approval ratings, in fact.) Far from having unconditional love from his base, Trump has already lost almost a third of his strong support. And voters who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumber those who strongly approve of him by about a 2-to-1 ratio, which could presage an “enthusiasm gap” that works against Trump at the midterms. The data suggests, in particular, that the GOP’s initial attempt (and failure) in March to pass its unpopular health care bill may have cost Trump with his core supporters.
As Americans learn how policies put into effect by the politicians they elect directly affect their personal economies and as everyday citizens are emboldened to believe in their self-worth, they will slowly awaken into action as they did in decades past. We made a big mistake in 1980 by allowing a smooth-talking politician to bring the final pieces inspired by the Powell Memo to fruition. Now it’s time to rid America of that cancer once and for all.
Comment below fold.
From Mac Hall: If you have heard my story of the CUB cashier before, just skip this paragraph. While waiting in line for the cashier to get a price check, she noticed my hat — a John Kerry for President cap. It was 2004, the Iraq situation was a big issue but that did not seem to be her issue when she said to me “So you’re a Kerry guy … I’m just not sure about him … he’s gonna raise my taxes.” Not sure what her wage was, but said “No, Bush tax cuts have helped the wealthy … shifting tax burden to workers and increased our national debt while Kerry just wants to roll back the tax cuts on the wealthy.” She responded “yeah, but I still don’t trust him.”
Trump understood the CUB cashier … who saw people paying for groceries with food stamps while she worked … and saw that incursion of automated checkout lines — eliminating cashiers.
So, Trump could be getting some erosion of support … but those voters may still be afraid of the Dems.
The question is will the CUB cashier bother to vote ?
Let’s look at Minnesota’s Second District … and compare the Presidential election years: 2012 … 90.1% of the registered voters participated and Kline got 54% of the vote and Obermueller got 46%. 2016 … while the total number of registered voters increased by over 26,000 only just over 12,000 actually voted … reducing the participation rate to 87.4%. MNGOP Lewis won with 47%, DFLer Craig got 45% and IP Overby got 8%. Beyond that, we know that there are an estimated 49,000 people who are not registered.
That is really the challenge … how do you get people to vote. And some may have felt obligated to vote for Congress and just decided that neither Lewis or Craig was their choice, so they simply “wasted” their vote on Overby. (BTW … consider that TrumpCare was passed with one vote to spare, shouldn’t there be a lot of anger at the inability to excite the voters with Craig’s candidacy … heck, she barely beat Obermueller’s total (she only moved the DFL tally up 2,977) … so why is she being mentioned again this cycle?) While, this is easily seen as a problem in MN02. consider how the Minnesota legislature has been taken over by the MNGOP, and you gotta be concerned. Look at Walz-Hagedorn race in MN01 … Walz had money to burn and was an incumbent, yet the contest was very close (close enough that Norm Coleman has already sent money to Hagedorn for his 2018 campaign.)
Yeah … there may be some positive trends … but let’s remember that Montana just elected another Republican millionaire in a Special Election (as they did in Kansas) … their margins may have been closer, but they still won.
Dems have to have a better message … not just bashing Trump and Russia … why aren’t they asking “Where’s Trump’s infrastructure bill ?”