Well, we know that Americans can, and do, far too often. (OK, even once is far too often.) But in Canada, where in recent years conservatives have been winning national elections, there are grounds for hope. This article is from September 8; current data (from Canada’s version, kind of, of 538) shows the same situation.
After a month of campaigning, the three-way race for Canada’s Oct. 19 election has narrowed as warning signs emerge for Prime Minister Stephen Harper in his bid for a fourth consecutive term.
The incumbent Conservative has endured an explosive court case, talk of a recession and a refugee crisis that have eroded his traditional core platform planks: accountability and economic stewardship. Tom Mulcair of the leftist New Democratic Party and Justin Trudeau of the centrist Liberals, meanwhile, are each working to position themselves as the best alternative to Harper.
Polls have shown the three parties essentially tied — though one, published Monday night by Nanos Research, suggests Harper has sunk to third place. The deadlock may break as Canada emerges from an end-of-summer long weekend, with students returning to classrooms and workers settling back into routine.
A thriving Canada is good for the U.S. (especially bordering states like Minnesota), and vice versa. The likelihood of “thriving” in both countries substantially increases based on the degree to which governance is progressive. And that likelihood plummets when conservatives are in power.
From Eric Ferguson: Not sure I’d say they stuck with Conservatives before. The Conservative Party won an outright majority of seats, but left-leaning voters split their votes among the Liberal Party, New Democrat Party, and Green Party, and even the Bloc Quebecois is small “l” liberal in their policies aside from Quebec separation. So the Conservatives won just about 35% of the vote. I would have thought the disaster of losing despite a collective clear majority would spur the left to address this, but they haven’t. The Conservatives really don’t need much more than a third of the votes win a majority of seats. The left leaning members of parliament would form a coalition, but just like in our House seats, each riding (district) is plurality winner, and the Conservatives won lots of narrow pluralities.