(Now I don't know if a person who still thinks the Vikings are going to win can be trusted with political advice. However, I have been pondering the advantages of Tom Rukavina as a running mate, who manages to make even non-supporters laugh and enjoy his company. - promoted by Grace Kelly)
As I bide time before the start of the Super Bowl I give you this NFL metaphor for the Minnesota DFL gubernatorial candidates as the county conventions and April state convention approach. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, the winner of the Feb. 2 straw vote, and House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, a very close second in the straw vote, control their own destinies. The only way one of these two are not the DFL endorsed candidate is if both of them flame out at the local conventions or destroy one another. We live in Minnesota, home of the Vikings, and we're talking about Democrats, which means that both of these things are possible.
So Rybak and Kelliher are the front runners. Every other candidate still has a chance but, in football commentator vernacular, they need some help. Matt Entenza has the ability to increase his payroll and marketing to help himself. John Marty, Tom Rukavina and Paul Thissen all need external help to some degree; Tom Bakk and Susan Gaertner need it to a larger degree. In most cases, this means that each of these candidates needs one or more specific other candidates to falter and drop before the first ballot of the state convention. Meantime, Mark Dayton, who's waiting for the primary, represents the metaphorical New Orleans Saints in the NFC championship game. The endorsed candidate could beat him. No really, they could. (Run it, Favre. RUN IT!) Don't read too much into the direct football to candidate parallels. I'm just imagining the "what ifs" for the Vikings this year. |
| As some of you know I write from the Iron Range, an often misunderstood and mischaracterized cornerstone in the Minnesota DFL coalition. It's not liberal, except when it is, and it wins elections for DFLers, except when it doesn't. I write about this (and much more) in my book "Overburden: Modern Life on the Iron Range" and my increasingly nonpolitical blog MinnesotaBrown.com.
One overlooked observation from the precinct caucus straw poll was that the winners of the poll - Rybak and Kelliher - both have glaring weaknesses on the Iron Range. Now, the Iron Range has two candidates in the race so Rukavina and Bakk absorbed a lot of the votes (and in that order). But after the locals, the next candidate I saw in most of the vote totals was Marty (he finished second in Itasca County. This after Matt Entenza spent a lot of time in this neighborhood and deployed an active field organization (!). Kelliher and Rybak were nonfactors in most precincts, even among the delegates who came out for the specific purpose of not voting for Rukavina or Bakk.
It's not that Rybak and Kelliher "can't play" outside their Minneapolis base. In fact, Kelliher can do just fine in regional centers like Rochester and Mankato with her farm roots. Rybak performed very well in Duluth, thanks to the political support of key DFLers like Mayor Don Ness and several city councilors. Margaret has an internal party advantage with superdelegates, which Rybak counters with superior presentation skills. Both Rybak and Kelliher have the political ability to perform well in St. Cloud. The Northwest is so used to outside candidates at the top of the ticket that they don't complain anymore. But the Range is a fickle region in DFL primaries. We are kingmakers who haven't kinged anything in a while.
Thus, my general prediction. The Iron Range, in some fashion, will play a huge role at the DFL convention this year and in the success or failure of the DFL ticket. If Rybak or Kelliher are endorsed they will likely select an Iron Range running mate (though Rybak might get away with picking the Duluthian Ness, if he's willing). Among the candidates on the bubble, the most likely to pull off a shock upset at the convention are Thissen or Rukavina. (Entenza and Marty may do well, but I see road blocks in their way, especially for Entenza). Rukavina doesn't have to worry about the Range but Thissen would fall into the same logic and realize the need to make some offering to the Iron Range, most likely a Lt. Gov. selection. Maybe this means Rukavina or Bakk, maybe it means someone else - at minimum someone with Range ties. Nevertheless, it would be wise for everyone to game this scenario once the first ballot delegate scenario becomes clearer.
And this time the Vikings are going to win. I can feel it.
UPDATE: Post changed to correct some bad word-of-mouth information I had about Itasca County. It was John Marty, not Entenza, that came in second place behind Rukavina in Itasca County. Entenza finished behind Bakk and Kelliher at the back of the pack. |
