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Emmer up big in internal poll

by Eric Ferguson on April 24, 2014 · 2 comments

h/t Daily Kos Elections. The Tom Emmer campaign has released internal poll results for the Republican primary showing him blowing out his opponents. If the results are right, Phil Krinkie and Rhonda Sivarajah aren’t even breaking into double digits.

3. Tom Emmer holds a staggering 64-point lead on the primary ballot against his two primary opponents (combined!). On the primary ballot test, Emmer receives 73% of the vote, while Rhonda Sivarajah garners 5% and Phil Krinkie 4%. Emmer’s lead is even larger among self-identified strong Republicans (78% Emmer – 6% everyone else), strong Republicans who are ideologically very conservative (77% Emmer – 10% others), and strong Republicans who are Tea Party supporters (77% Emmer – 8% others). In other words, those who are most likely to vote will be voting for Tom Emmer.
4. Tom Emmer’s support climbs even higher when likely primary voters learn he is Republican-endorsed candidate (79% voting for Emmer – 3% Krinkie – 4% Sivarajah).


So for Emmer to lose the primary, either this poll has to be epically wrong, or just made up, or one of his opponents has to run a campaign for the ages, or a big scandal needs to break, by which I mean something bigger than a gaffe. The $100,000 waiters won’t do it this time. Of course, this is Tom Emmer, so who knows what’s waiting to come out. When opponents don’t come out with their own poll, that’s usually a sign the released internal poll is right.

This release doesn’t mention the general election. Maybe they didn’t poll for the general election, maybe they figure that’s in the bag or any Republican, or maybe the general election results weren’t encouraging. Campaigns don’t normally release poll results that are bad news. Generally internal poll results have been in the ballpark of being accurate, which makes sense since campaigns want accurate information and polling is too expense to waste on nonsense. On the other hand, Mitt Romney’s internal polls were “unskewed” and told him he was sure to win, and the campaign preferred to believe that instead of the many public polls saying Obama had it. So maybe assume nothing. My hope is that the reason for no general election results is that they’re bad. Maybe the DFLers are close in a district a Republican should win easily. I doubt very much their campaigns can afford polling. To guess rather than hope, my guess is the poll didn’t ask about the general election.

So for the general election, DFLers’ hopes of winning this district might hinge on Emmer continuing to say dumb stuff.
The DFL candidates are Judy Adams, Jim Read, and Joe Perske. The DFL has no clear frontrunner. The convention is May 3rd.

Mac Hall April 25, 2014 at 6:27 am

Here’s my question … why spend the money for a poll ?

Although there was never a doubt that Emmer would win the primary, it shows a campaign that is focused …. and not going to assume anything.
What is most impressive is “94 percent of likely primary voters have heard of Emmer, with 81 percent having an opinion of Emmer.”
So, he has got the name recognition needed.
Is it “bad” name recognition … well in this group of “likely primary” voters, no … “71 percent of likely voters have a favorable view of Emmer, while 10 percent view him unfavorably.”

Of course what this means is that since they polled “likely primary voters” which will be a fraction of the November potential participation, it is skewed but a reasonable representation for the primary election.

The likelihood of any DFLer getting any of these “likely primary voters” in November is nil … so they better focus on getting their own name recognition …. even if done through a “Madness” contest.

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