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2016 election voting patterns

trump10(In Part 1 I wrote about the Great American Stupid.)

This article is the most definitive, yet straightforward, thing I’ve seen so far. It pretty much goes with the “perfect storm” of factors hypothesis which most people who seem to know what they’re talking about, have arrived at. It was a lot of things, not just one like “white working class resentment.”

The reasons that happened varied from state to state, Bonier and other analysts note. In Ohio and Wisconsin, for example, turnout fell, belying the image of an army of previously hidden Trump voters storming the polls.
In Pennsylvania, by contrast, that image may be more accurate — turnout rose significantly across the state. Similarly, in Florida, Clinton won heavily in nearly all the places that Democrats generally count on, but lost because of a huge election-day upsurge in heavily white, nonurban counties of the central part of the state, according to an analysis by Democratic strategist Steve Schale.
One big, consistent piece of the problem was that Clinton performed worse than Obama did in blue-collar, predominantly white communities outside of major cities; such as the counties that include Scranton and Erie, Pa.; Youngstown, Ohio; Green Bay, Wis.; and Daytona Beach in Florida. In many such counties, Clinton’s vote was 15 percentage points or more below what Obama received in his reelection…
In contrast to the “where” and “when,” the “who” and “why” of Trump’s success remain more elusive. Analysts know, for example, that some people who voted for Obama four years ago turned around and voted for Trump this year. But they don’t yet have a good picture of how many did so compared with the number of Obama voters who simply stayed home.
Some of the answers won’t be known until states release their detailed voter files, showing who actually voted this year. Only a few states have done that so far.
(Los Angeles Times)

This wasn’t a low-turnout election, compared to most recent ones. But we sure didn’t get the high turnout that would have been needed to give Donald Trump – Donald Trump – the sound shellacking that he should have been hit with along with his political party and, most of all, right-wing ideology.
I find the thought that a very substantial number of voters switched from Obama to Trump to be of tremendous concern. My feeling is that it will turn out to be a comparatively small number. Hopefully that’s not just wishful thinking.
In some ways things don’t really look different than they have in the past. But different enough, for a close election. Way closer than it ever should have been, by any rational standards. Donald f*cking Trump!!!