As Senate District Conventions are over, and we head into Congressional District Conventions, followed by the DFL State Convention, I thought this would be a good opportunity to remind readers of the Cable Access TV program produced by volunteers in DFL SD-42, "Democratic Visions". The program airs in Hopkins, Minnetonka, Edina, Richfield and Eden Prairie on Sundays at 9:00 pm and Wednesdays at 5:30 pm on Channel 15; I'm the Assistant to the Ass't Caddy Master, and Chief Range Ball Picker Executive Producer.
We've had some great guests on the show, from Minnetonka Council Member Amber Greves to Senator Al Franken (and, Franni, too!). A particularly riveting guest was State Public Defender John Stuart, discussing the challenges confronting Minnesota's court system prompted by cuts to the number of public defenders; another segment honored the 10th anniversary of the death of state legislator Willard Munger, Minnesota's "Mr. Environment."
So as people consider who to support for Governor, especially the 45% (+/-) of Uncommitted Delegates, take a look at ALL of the candidates above. The quick link to Democratic Visions is here.
The new show starts tomorrow; it features State Auditor Rebecca Otto, Minnetonka City Council Member James Hiller, and yours truly, the ol' TwoPutter. YouTubes of that new show are below the fold; let's look!!!
Another great weekend of delegate chasing across the state. We're still waiting on reconciliation of a two-delegate discrepancy in SD52, and we still don't have results from the 11-delegate Otter Tail County convention. However, other than those thirteen delegates, we're now looking at two virtual ties in the pledged delegate chase, which is almost at an end. I'm including the superdelegates here so we have as close to a complete picture as possible.
Candidate
Pledged Del.
Superdel.
Total
Uncommitted
481
~80
~560
MAK
177.5
46
223.5
Rybak
176.5
1
177.5
Marty
71
4
75
Thissen
66
4
70
Rukavina
45.5
3
48.5
Bakk
25.5
18
43.5
Entenza
29.5
11
40.5
After completing the numbers from several previously missing county conventions, Margaret Anderson Kelliher held a(n approximated) 7-delegate lead among pledged delegates. However, R.T. Rybak had another really good day in the West Metro, and made up that margin to pull within just one. MAK still holds a commanding lead overall, assuming that all the superdelegates show up in Duluth and vote on the floor of the convention.
State Sen. John Marty also had a very good weekend, pulling even with or just ahead of State Rep. Paul Thissen.
Assuming the remaining fifty delegates yet to be elected split somewhat evenly (even if they don't, they won't have a huge effect on these totals), there are basically four tiers here:
1.) MAK vs. Rybak. The two frontrunners will duke it out for uncommitted delegates and the pleasure of being a first-ballot leader in Duluth. It matters.
2.) Thissen vs. Marty. Being in the second tier isn't a bad place to be -- having a base of strong support means you can dictate the course of events, get supporters on to committees that decide how business will be done at the convention, and make deals with other candidates.
3.) Rukavina + Bakk. Rumors of a deal between the two northern Minnesota candidates have not abated -- combining their support bases would launch that candidate (at this point, it would be Rukavina) right into the second tier and might make for an interesting move on the convention floor.
4.) Entenza. The odd man out -- or is he? There have been numerous reports of strong Entenza supporters getting themselves elected out of uncommitted subcaucuses, a good strategic move when you don't have the support base to create your own subcaucuses. Entenza will likely outperform his pledged total indicated here, but by how much?
I'm having some issues creating a screenshot of the entire Delegate Tracker spreadsheet (it's getting very large), so I'll update the post with that later today. Hopefully by then we'll have those thirteen delegates straightened out too.
Still waiting on results from several conventions:
SD33 SD34
SD44
SD52
Otter Tail
If anyone was in attendance and has results from these conventions, drop'em in the comments.
I'm reconciling some numbers from yesterday, but at present it appears that both Margaret Anderson Kelliher and John Marty had great days -- Marty appears to have moved into a virtual tie with Paul Thissen for third place in pledged delegates. MAK has put a little daylight between herself and R.T. Rybak in that measure, but we'll see what happens when we pull in those remaining conventions.
There was an interesting discussion about how DFL candidates get selected here the other day. I'm running it here in front page article to see what you make of it.
The participants seem to be veteran campaigners and activists, some are critical of the current Dem procedure in Minnesota--some defend it. If you read the remarks below, you'll learn something about how DFL candidates get selected, and why some people are critical of that system.
First up is veteran Dem campaigner Dana Houle:
Hmmm, Well... (4.00 / 1)
...(Regarding) the notion that the local party, through the DFL endorsement process, is adept at determining who the nominees should be, that electability goes in to their calculations, and that this process has been shown to be as good or better than putting things to the voters to decide. I think that's a dubious assumption, especially considering that Minnesota--a pretty damn progressive state compared to the rest of the country--has gone longer than all but 2 states in electing a Democratic governor, and that the DFL hasn't endorsed a successful non-incumbent to that office in 40 years.
When I explain to just about anyone outside of Minnesota that a small number of people go through a months-long process to bestow their endorsement on a candidate, but that they generally will only bestow that endorsement on someone if before that process begins the candidate pledges to not let a broader universe of Democratic primary voters have their say, the people I explain this to are usually shocked at what a strange system exists in Minnesota. One can, I guess, come up with plenty of arguments why you should maintain this anachronistic process. But choosing candidates who are best suited and well-prepared to win in November is not, in my mind, something this process driven by only a couple hundred people willing to spend several nights and weekends in what can often be a tedious or chaotic endeavor, has been successful in doing
So, while I'm no fan of Maureen Reed, in particular because of her background as a spoiler, I can't get upset with her for taking her race to a primary, because that's a far more small-d democratic process, and also one which, I think is repeatedly shown outside the state of Minnesota, more often than not results in the nomination going to someone best or at least very well-suited to be a competitive general election candidate.
by: Dana Houle @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 16:33:39 PM CST
(CONTINUED BELOW THE JUMP)
Over the last few months we've focused a lot, rightfully, on the governor's race. It's the most important thing on the ballot this coming November.
But there's also a big race underway in my home congressional district, currently "represented" by so-called Moderate Republican Erik Paulsen. In the 3rd District we have two DFL candidates vying for the party's endorsement. They've participated in three debates, at nine Senate District conventions so far, and have spent the last few months campaigning hard for every delegate they've earned.
But only one candidate has proven they have what it takes to win. My endorsement to follow after the break.
The following senate district conventions are coming up this weekend:
SD33
SD34
SD44
SD45
SD50
SD52
SD54
SD55
SD67
These conventions will elect a total of 161 delegates to the DFL state convention, to bring the overall total up to 1131 and leave just 69 left to elect next weekend.
I'm also pleased to report that the Delegate Tracker now includes every single convention held to date -- that means all 970 delegates elected so far are accounted for even if our results from all those conventions aren't quite complete.
I've added in a big block of county units that held their conventions and elected a total of 57 delegates -- I've coded those totals accordingly. You'll see when I post the tracker over the weekend. Of those 970, we're tracking 904.5 (93.25%) of them, so I feel pretty good about our numbers. With that additional block added in, Margaret Anderson Kelliher is holding an extremely slim two-delegate lead over R.T. Rybak, 145.5 to 143.5.
Of course, "Uncommitted" still leads the way with 414, but we've been through that topic a few times before.
If there are any conventions this weekend that are not listed above, let us know and I'll add them in. We're in the home-stretch here, so if you're attending any of these conventions, make sure to report in with complete results!
As always, thanks for your help with this project. It's kind of a big deal. Otherwise, treat this as an open thread for anything at all.
House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher picked up another superdelegate endorsement today, this time from State Sen. Ron Latz (D-St. Louis Park). Latz previously supported Steve Kelley, who preceded him in his SD44 seat prior to 2007 and ran unsuccessfully for the DFL gubernatorial endorsement this year.
Latz represents superdelegate #46 for MAK, whose base of support among her elected colleagues is a formidable advantage over the other candidates, none of whom has anywhere near that many automatic endorsement votes.
I told a commenter recently that I would put together a standalone page containing the complete delegate chase picture, combining the Superdelegate tracker and our frequent pledged delegate updates -- guess it's time to catch up on that promise.
(Somehow, I think Dusty might be bringing this up on the radio tonight, on AM950, at 6:00 pm.... - promoted by TwoPuttTommy)
I've got a bone to pick with Maureen Reed. Yesterday Maureen Reed's campaign sent out a really whiney email implying that people are trying to twist her campaign's record. I figured I should probably chime in, you know because I'm bored and whatnot.
In the email Reed sent out she says people are claiming that she'll run as an independent and corrects the record saying that she's running as a 'Proud DFLer'. Ok fine, she PREVIOUSLY ran as an independent and claims rather boldly that she can rally independents. The reality is that her 2006 run dramatically underperformed other independents who've run in CD6. I don't know who or what a Binkowski is, but it seems to know more about reaching independents in CD6 than Maureen Reed.
About that independent record of hers... It's probably the reason Tim Pawlenty is waltzing off into the 2012 Presidential campaign sunset right now. Sure T-Paw bested Mike Hatch by 21,108 votes, and much of the blame can be pinned on the Hatch campaign, BUT the 141,735 votes that Maureen Reed helped peel away certainly can't add much to her proud DFLer status. By my count that's 120,000 reasons for us to blame Maureen Reed for Pawlenty's re-election.
You folks are awesome. When I wake up and find that there are 56 new comments on a single post -- one from a community member and not a frontpager, no less -- it warms the cockles of my heart to know that one of MPP's purposes is being fulfilled. Just remember that there are still human beings on the other side of the comments that so inflame our political passion.
What I'm hearing, based on 17 comments here, 10 comments here, 44 here, 71 commentshere, and another 27 here sums up to the following points:
We want a strong, progressive gubernatorial candidate
We want a candidate who can win
The DFL endorsement process has some issues that may or may not be ameliorated through a competitive primary
We're tired of elected DFLers not being able to follow through on campaign promises and platform planks
Those are all pretty reasonable precepts, I think, and use neutral enough language that they shouldn't anger anyone too much. The neutrality of the language is important, because one comment I see far too frequently (related to the fourth point) is that "Dems have no spine" and I think that's inaccurate.
It's not that elected DFLers and Democrats nationally don't have confidence and courage in their convictions. Seriously -- it's a matter of having the political instincts and tactical skills to make them happen. That, I think, is an important consideration in this gubernatorial race: who has not just the platform, the issues, and the charisma to win, but also the strategic talent to actually put those values into practice through thoughtful, progressive, effective government policy?
I'm not looking to or away from any one candidate on this -- rather, I'm looking for an approach to politics that says "look, I hold our ideals sacred, and I can and will use every political ninjitsu move in the book to get them into law. Singing kumbaya and hoping for the best isn't good enough anymore."
Halfway through convention season, the Ramsey County Attorney race is starting to take shape - and John Choi's message is resonating with DFL delegates. With a little over 180 possible delegates identified, DFLers are over halfway to selecting the 304 delegates that will endorse for county attorney. While the endorsement battle for the governor's office has not resulted in a clear-cut leader, John has established himself as the frontrunner in the race.
At this point in the race, two key indicators are strongly in Choi's favor -- the numbers of "named" delegates and "superdelegates." While they each make up a fraction of all delegates, both categories demonstrate the general support a candidate has at a convention. Currently, John has earned 30 named delegates, compared to 6 for all of his opponents combined, and he holds a 12 to 2 advantage in the superdelegate count.
John's leadership has attracted a team of long-time DFL activists and lawyers who have earned a reputation for highly-organized, well-run efforts. Heading into this weekend, John and his team show no signs of slowing down. For more on John's experience and innovative leadership, visit www.votejohnchoi.com.
Eric Black penned a piece yesterday noting the role the Renew.MN effort may have on the DFL gubernatorial endorsement, and it's worth a read. In that same vein, a reader wrote in and offered some more details from inside the effort:
my understanding is that reNEW folks will be free to vote as they like the first ballot, from the three endorsed candidates. At some point, whether it's after the first ballot or what, the reNEW delegates will make a decision as a group as to who to swing their support to. reNEW delegates sign a pledge that they are committed to supporting this process, which is no guarantee, of course, but does mean something.
...
I wouldn't assume that if Margaret is ahead on the first vote, reNEW swings that way, particularly because her lead is primarily due to automatic delegates. Also keep in mind that a number of reNEW people may have gotten through named candidate subcaucuses or subcaucuses without reNEW in them, which means that some of the "hard" numbers you have for the reNEW candidates could evaporate once reNEW swings to one candidate. This is a bit of a chicken-or-egg question, but it's interesting that the three top delegate counts are for reNEW candidates: perhaps partly because reNEW ended up endorsing the three strongest candidates, but perhaps partially due to reNEW's support as well: who knows.
All politics start in the precinct. That's where grassroots activism begins and, all too often, ends.
Do the residents of your precinct know you exist? Do they know that there is a DFL organization in their neighborhood?
Probably not. I'm in Saint Paul W-6 P-13. At the precinct caucus in 2008, I learned that my precinct did not even have a chair. I was new here, and didn't offer to be that person.
In 2010, I did. Not only that, but I pretty much insisted that all 6 people who bothered to show up at our caucus volunteer to be delegates and lined up four of them to fill the other precinct positions. I'm hopeful that we'll be able to organize a serious precinct walking campaign this year. Finally!
I write content for websites as my work. So, I built a precinct website. I did it on Blogger.com. It was a no-brainer. I also got business cards printed up for the precinct, so we can drop them when walking the precinct. Now, I'm not advertising the web site, but I'm already getting emails from residents of the precinct. Questions. Issues being raised.
How about your precinct? Are you part of the organization? Why not establish your precinct organization as the contact point for residents? Creating a Blogger.com website is a snap. Takes just a little while to do. InstaPrint will create business cards for you for the cost of shipping.
Hint: If you pattern your Blogger.com site's name after the one I selected for our precinct, you will hit the top of Google searches for your precinct in about a week.
Grassroots! Organize! Work! Campaign!
Here's our precinct website? Does your precinct have one? Why not?
Thank goodness for Al Franken. But we almost didn't get him into office. We almost had Norm Coleman as the junior senator for Minnesota.
Here's why that happened, and why everyone needs to pay attention to what happened:
The Franken campaign, for reasons I will never understand, failed to connect with new voters who supported President Obama.
At my Saint Paul precincts polling place, I took my time when I showed up to vote. I was watching what went on. What I saw told me why the Franken/Coleman race was so close, while Obama swept the state.
I was at the polling place for about an hour. In that time, at least a third of the voters were registering at the polling place. It was clear that they had not voted before...ever. Some were black, some were Hmong, some were hispanic. To a person, once they got their ballot, they were in the voting booth for less than 30 seconds.
They voted for President Obama, then ran their ballot through the scanner. They didn't vote for any other candidate or any other issue...only for Obama.
The Franken campaign did not align itself with the Obama campaign and make it clear that voting for Franken was as important as voting for Obama. I saw no campaign ads stressing that.
I mentioned this to a few people in the Franken campaign, long before the election, but the concept seemed foreign to them. They couldn't visualize anyone casting just a vote for President. Surely, they thought, these new voters would vote for DFL candidates down the line.
The results show that not to be the case. Campaigns need to pay attention to the details. They need to get every vote. Nothing else will do.
We almost had Norm Coleman as our Senator, ladies and gentlemen. Imagine!
If you're involved in a campaign, keep this in mind. How many people will go to the polls and vote for the Governor's race and stop there? Don't make Franken's mistake and miss those votes. We need to work together. It's not just the campaign you're working on...it's progressivism across the board.
When I wrote a post yesterday talking about validation for our delegate tracking efforts, I didn't expect quite so much conversation in the comments.
I am in no way complaining.
Two comments toward the end jumped out at me, this one:
I personally like this system better than a primary. This is a PARTY function and I do not want my party subject to the whims of low information voters manipulated by whoever has the largest campaign chest to buy advertising. The caucus/convention system is a manifestation of grassroots democracy of people who are active in the party. It is perfect? NO. Does it always make the right choice? NO. Can some working people be adversely affected? YES. But like I said, this is a PARTY function that is open to people who consider themselves PARTY members. It takes committment, it takes time, it takes effort. The ultimate fate of the party lies with the time, committment, and effort of its members.
Let the party insiders, hacks, groupies, special interests, and the odd real activist make their ceremonial endorsement. Then, let the people decide, "low information voters" and all. If a candidate can't survive a primary, they've got no business representing the DFL on the general election ballot.
I happen to agree with both of these statements. The endorsement can be a good thing, and the primary can be a good thing in the very same election cycle, especially if the party's endorsee can take the endorsement and create a real people-powered grassroots machine instead of leaning on it and hoping the party can do the campaign's work for it.
The best role I think we in the online space can fill is holding all the candidates at every stage of the race accountable for themselves, their platforms, and their campaigns -- to the most accountable and strongest progressive candidate (meaning policies and campaign strength too) go the spoils.
Politics in Minnesota is checking in on our delegate tracking efforts:
The Democratic side (as usual) is much murkier. But MN Progressive Project's Joe Bodell has put together a list of pledged delegates that campaign officials say is pretty accurate. By far the biggest chunk of delegates - 369 - are uncommitted to any candidate.
...
This tally, however, doesn't consider superdelegates, where Kelliher has a substantial lead over the other challengers. The upshot: no candidate is anywhere remotely close to the 60 percent level of support that will be needed to win the party's endorsement.
Thanks go to the "campaign officials" for the validation. Now to keep making these tallies more and more accurate as we get closer to next weekend's final big chunk of conventions.
