Here's a quick reference list of MN Progressive Project interviews with the various DFL gubernatorial hopefuls, going all the way back to early 2007. No, that's not a typo!
Joe Bodell's Interviews with Candidates for Governor:
The following senate district conventions are coming up this weekend:
SD33
SD34
SD44
SD45
SD50
SD52
SD54
SD55
SD67
These conventions will elect a total of 161 delegates to the DFL state convention, to bring the overall total up to 1131 and leave just 69 left to elect next weekend.
I'm also pleased to report that the Delegate Tracker now includes every single convention held to date -- that means all 970 delegates elected so far are accounted for even if our results from all those conventions aren't quite complete.
I've added in a big block of county units that held their conventions and elected a total of 57 delegates -- I've coded those totals accordingly. You'll see when I post the tracker over the weekend. Of those 970, we're tracking 904.5 (93.25%) of them, so I feel pretty good about our numbers. With that additional block added in, Margaret Anderson Kelliher is holding an extremely slim two-delegate lead over R.T. Rybak, 145.5 to 143.5.
Of course, "Uncommitted" still leads the way with 414, but we've been through that topic a few times before.
If there are any conventions this weekend that are not listed above, let us know and I'll add them in. We're in the home-stretch here, so if you're attending any of these conventions, make sure to report in with complete results!
As always, thanks for your help with this project. It's kind of a big deal. Otherwise, treat this as an open thread for anything at all.
House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher picked up another superdelegate endorsement today, this time from State Sen. Ron Latz (D-St. Louis Park). Latz previously supported Steve Kelley, who preceded him in his SD44 seat prior to 2007 and ran unsuccessfully for the DFL gubernatorial endorsement this year.
Latz represents superdelegate #46 for MAK, whose base of support among her elected colleagues is a formidable advantage over the other candidates, none of whom has anywhere near that many automatic endorsement votes.
I told a commenter recently that I would put together a standalone page containing the complete delegate chase picture, combining the Superdelegate tracker and our frequent pledged delegate updates -- guess it's time to catch up on that promise.
You folks are awesome. When I wake up and find that there are 56 new comments on a single post -- one from a community member and not a frontpager, no less -- it warms the cockles of my heart to know that one of MPP's purposes is being fulfilled. Just remember that there are still human beings on the other side of the comments that so inflame our political passion.
What I'm hearing, based on 17 comments here, 10 comments here, 44 here, 71 commentshere, and another 27 here sums up to the following points:
We want a strong, progressive gubernatorial candidate
We want a candidate who can win
The DFL endorsement process has some issues that may or may not be ameliorated through a competitive primary
We're tired of elected DFLers not being able to follow through on campaign promises and platform planks
Those are all pretty reasonable precepts, I think, and use neutral enough language that they shouldn't anger anyone too much. The neutrality of the language is important, because one comment I see far too frequently (related to the fourth point) is that "Dems have no spine" and I think that's inaccurate.
It's not that elected DFLers and Democrats nationally don't have confidence and courage in their convictions. Seriously -- it's a matter of having the political instincts and tactical skills to make them happen. That, I think, is an important consideration in this gubernatorial race: who has not just the platform, the issues, and the charisma to win, but also the strategic talent to actually put those values into practice through thoughtful, progressive, effective government policy?
I'm not looking to or away from any one candidate on this -- rather, I'm looking for an approach to politics that says "look, I hold our ideals sacred, and I can and will use every political ninjitsu move in the book to get them into law. Singing kumbaya and hoping for the best isn't good enough anymore."
Occasional MN Governor Tim Pawlenty is about to sign an absentee ballot reform bill into law. Secretary of State Mark Ritchie pushed the effort through the state legislature. The bill will set uniform standards statewide for evaluating absentee ballots ... this was a major Republican complaint during the recount.
Here's Republican party chair Tony Sutton back in November 2009 commenting on the new absentee ballots which are easier to understand:
"Today's window dressing from Mark Ritchie can't change the fact that Minnesota's absentee ballot system remains broken. ... As a result of Ritchie's unacceptable failure to properly train local election officials, Minnesotans have been subject to appalling disparities in how absentee ballots are counted across the state."
[emphasis added]
(Star Tribune)
Republican MN-GOV candidate Tom Emmer was paradoxically outraged by this bill's passage.
Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Delano, voted against the election bill. Emmer, a GOP candidate for governor, said the measure lets the state take away too much local control.
"Our local officials are supposed to be in charge of their elections. Let's stop taking away that authority," Emmer said. "There's going to be one day when they wake up and say how did this happen? How did we turn all of this over to somebody else, and why are we operating under these not only ludicrous but onerous burdens that we've let somebody else create for us?"
(MPR)
Why is Emmer contradicting his own party line? That's because Emmer is running for higher office and is trying to separate himself from his opponent, Marty Seifert. Actually, Emmer used to support statewide absentee ballot procedures.
Republican lawmakers also question the process. Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Delano, says putting Supreme Court justices on the Canvassing Board forces them to bow out of the later, and binding, legal process that follows a recount.
He adds the board's deference to local elections officials made for troubling disparities from one place to another.
"How can you say you've done your job if it's true that there are counties where rejected absentee ballots were counted, and there are other counties where rejected absentee ballots weren't counted? Wouldn't you do it the same in every county? There's just too much grey," said Emmer.
[emphasis added]
(MPR)
Apparently, flip flops are standard practice for Republicans running for higher office.
Eric Black penned a piece yesterday noting the role the Renew.MN effort may have on the DFL gubernatorial endorsement, and it's worth a read. In that same vein, a reader wrote in and offered some more details from inside the effort:
my understanding is that reNEW folks will be free to vote as they like the first ballot, from the three endorsed candidates. At some point, whether it's after the first ballot or what, the reNEW delegates will make a decision as a group as to who to swing their support to. reNEW delegates sign a pledge that they are committed to supporting this process, which is no guarantee, of course, but does mean something.
...
I wouldn't assume that if Margaret is ahead on the first vote, reNEW swings that way, particularly because her lead is primarily due to automatic delegates. Also keep in mind that a number of reNEW people may have gotten through named candidate subcaucuses or subcaucuses without reNEW in them, which means that some of the "hard" numbers you have for the reNEW candidates could evaporate once reNEW swings to one candidate. This is a bit of a chicken-or-egg question, but it's interesting that the three top delegate counts are for reNEW candidates: perhaps partly because reNEW ended up endorsing the three strongest candidates, but perhaps partially due to reNEW's support as well: who knows.
When I wrote a post yesterday talking about validation for our delegate tracking efforts, I didn't expect quite so much conversation in the comments.
I am in no way complaining.
Two comments toward the end jumped out at me, this one:
I personally like this system better than a primary. This is a PARTY function and I do not want my party subject to the whims of low information voters manipulated by whoever has the largest campaign chest to buy advertising. The caucus/convention system is a manifestation of grassroots democracy of people who are active in the party. It is perfect? NO. Does it always make the right choice? NO. Can some working people be adversely affected? YES. But like I said, this is a PARTY function that is open to people who consider themselves PARTY members. It takes committment, it takes time, it takes effort. The ultimate fate of the party lies with the time, committment, and effort of its members.
Let the party insiders, hacks, groupies, special interests, and the odd real activist make their ceremonial endorsement. Then, let the people decide, "low information voters" and all. If a candidate can't survive a primary, they've got no business representing the DFL on the general election ballot.
I happen to agree with both of these statements. The endorsement can be a good thing, and the primary can be a good thing in the very same election cycle, especially if the party's endorsee can take the endorsement and create a real people-powered grassroots machine instead of leaning on it and hoping the party can do the campaign's work for it.
The best role I think we in the online space can fill is holding all the candidates at every stage of the race accountable for themselves, their platforms, and their campaigns -- to the most accountable and strongest progressive candidate (meaning policies and campaign strength too) go the spoils.
Politics in Minnesota is checking in on our delegate tracking efforts:
The Democratic side (as usual) is much murkier. But MN Progressive Project's Joe Bodell has put together a list of pledged delegates that campaign officials say is pretty accurate. By far the biggest chunk of delegates - 369 - are uncommitted to any candidate.
...
This tally, however, doesn't consider superdelegates, where Kelliher has a substantial lead over the other challengers. The upshot: no candidate is anywhere remotely close to the 60 percent level of support that will be needed to win the party's endorsement.
Thanks go to the "campaign officials" for the validation. Now to keep making these tallies more and more accurate as we get closer to next weekend's final big chunk of conventions.
The campaign that builds excitement is going to win. I think MAK has the best technical direction. MAK people have picked up on entering many subcaucuses to build a perception of huge support. (Expect 50 subcaucuses at conventions this weekend, as other campaigns follow suit.) I think Rybak has the best spirit and political theater. I saw that Ryback group doing the wave yesterday in subcaucuses. Rybak supporters left energized and happy.
Approximately 300 more DFL state convention delegates were elected this weekend -- so where does the gubernatorial endorsement race stand?
First, standard caveats apply: 970 delegates have been elected so far, and we have conventions that add up to 913. Of those 913, we have results covering 843.5 -- this means our results are not complete. That being said, they are complete enough to get a good idea of where things stand -- just not an exact one.
With that said, on to the totals:
Gubernatorial pledged delegates Uncommitted: 369
R.T. Rybak: 143.5
MAK: 137.5
Paul Thissen: 58.5
John Marty: 49
Tom Rukavina: 41
Matt Entenza: 25
Tom Bakk: 20
The full spreadsheet is posted below. Highlights from the weekend:
R.T Rybak obviously had a very solid weekend, going from about three delegates down to six delegates up in our count. The spreadsheet bears this out -- although Margaret Anderson Kelliher kept up her solid gains and is still comfortably in the overall lead due to superdelegate endorsements, Rybak had a very good day in the west metro suburbs and in Olmstead County, where he appears to have picked up 8 (!) delegates.
Nevertheless, MAK is still in the lead overall, and will likely lead on the first ballot in April. If you factor in the superdelegate endorsements we already know of, and accept Team MAK's claims that fifty more are waiting in the wings, she already has about 17% of the first ballot racked up. Figure in at least a strong portion of the uncommitted delegates to date, and she's approaching 30% already, which will be tough for anyone to beat.
John Marty had a great weekend too, making significant gains in pledged delegates in places like Rice and Itasca counties. He stopped by SD42 briefly during subcaucusing, and we chatted for a minute, during which I expressed my sincere appreciation for his engagement with the MPP community.
Paul Thissen stalled out a little bit in the suburban conventions. His wonderful wife Karen spoke on his behalf at several events on Saturday, but there's a pretty big gap in his section of the spreadsheet in the recent conventions. He'll have support at the convention, but right now he's closer to the second tier than he is to the first.
Props to the members of the Bakk/Choi subcaucus. Certain nomination for Best Subcaucus Name of 2010.
Renew.mn is going to be a player one way or the other. Do they endorse MAK after the first ballot and nip the floor fight in the bud? Do they move toward R.T. Rybak or Paul Thissen and oppose the probable first-ballot leader? Only the ReNew.MN delegates know...and there are quite a few of them.
I'll have an update on the three competitive congressional endorsement races either later today or tomorrow morning. Here's the full spreadsheet -- as always, if you see discrepancies or districts where we're missing delegate totals, help us complete the puzzle. This little project has only gotten to where it is because of the efforts of the entire MPP community, and that's how it will continue to be right through the DFL state convention.
I have SD42 covered -- if you're attending any of the others (either listed here or missing from my list) or otherwise have exact results (subcaucus names and delegate allotments for each) for any of them, you can report them in the comments on this post.
And remember that this is important stuff going on. That being said, whether because of that importance or because you're simply having fun, make sure it's a positive experience.
Since Reps. EriK Paulsen (R) and Tim Walz (D) raised the subject of lifting the moratorium on building new nuclear power plants in MN, I figured it was time to get statements from the DFL MN-GOV candidates on the subject. They all oppose lifting the moratorium except RT Rybak who didn't answer the question and doesn't want to rule it out.
Margaret Anderson-Kelliher - concerned about storage, MN should create clean energy jobs.
Mark Dayton - Lifting the moratorium would be an injustice placed upon future generations.
Matt Entenza - A centerpiece of his campaign has been green energy solutions.
John Marty - he wrote the moratorium bill, nuff said.
Tom Rukavina - for moratorium until we figure out national disposal situation.
RT Rybak - Maximize energy efficiency, conservation and renewable energy sources first, but doesn't want to take nuclear off the table. RT wants the moratorium.
Paul Thissen - MN should lead in green technologies.
I've gotten a couple of requests to include the superdelegates -- elected officials and state party leaders who automatically get votes at the DFL state convention in April -- in our running tally. In addition, I did get some numbers back from those County Unit conventions where I previously only had Paul Thissen's numbers, so the inflation factor there has dropped a little bit.
If we include the superdelegates, here's what we have right now:
Candidate
Pledged
Super
Total
MAK
82.5
45
127.5
R.T. Rybak
79.5
1
80.5
Paul Thissen
48
4
52
Tom Rukavina
29
3
32
Tom Bakk
13.5
18
31.5
John Marty
26
4
30
Matt Entenza
4*
11
15*
Entenza gets an asterisk because I know for a fact I'm missing a few pledged delegates in his total -- I just can't get confirmation on them. However, he's still trailing the leading candidates in the delegate chase by a pretty hefty margin.
The elected delegates so far plus the superdelegates who have publicly endorsed a candidate represent about 45% of the total delegates who will be eligible to vote on the endorsement (~630/~1400). Like it or hate it, the superdelegates get votes, and when you include them Margaret Anderson Kelliher has a big advantage already -- but as we've said several times already, there are a LOT of uncommitted delegates out there still, as there will continue to be in the next few rounds of conventions starting this weekend.
As promised, we've gotten what appear to be accurate reports from Sunday's conventions, and also knocked a couple of previous conventions off the board (Blue Earth CU, Morrison CU, Lac Qui Parle CU). We've also corrected a 1-delegate discrepancy from SD60, and thanks are due to the eagle-eyed Marty supporter who caught it.
The updated totals:
Candidate
Pledged Delegates
Uncommitted
195
Margaret Anderson Kelliher
77.5
R.T. Rybak
72
Paul Thissen
47
Tom Rukavina
28
John Marty
25
Tom Bakk
13.5
Matt Entenza
4
As noted previously, Uncommitted is winning, although there are definitely "hidden" delegates (those actually supporting one candidate or another) in that big total. As also previously noted, Paul Thissen's total here is a bit inflated due to several counties where his are the only results so far -- although Morrison was one of those until we completed it last night.
Updated grid is below. We're now at 86% coverage -- hopefully we can cover about ten of the remaining fourteen percent by the next round of conventions this weekend.
This was a big weekend in the MN-GOV race. DFLers met at 28 conventions throughout the state. We're doing our utmost to pull in the most accurate information delegate counts that we can (Joe will have more up-to-date numbers pretty soon). The largest group of delegates by far are the uncommitted. Margaret Anderson-Kelliher leads RT Rybak by a few with Paul Thissen trailing in a distant third position. Of course, Margaret leads in superdelegates. So I'm writing to speculate about how all this might play out in Duluth at the end of April.
There is a wild card at play in all of this. The reNEW.MN campaign is getting delegates elected and will have some say in all of this. But what exactly?
RT should make the race closer as I expect he'll do better than Margaret in suburban and excurban areas, i.e., MN-02, MN-03 and MN-06.
Plus, I will consider what Tom Rukavina, John Marty and Paul Thissen might do with their blocks of delegates. Or will they have enough to do anything?
