If it takes an 8-point oversample in Tom Emmer's favor to get him up to a tie, I feel pretty great about Mark Dayton's chances in a real electorate in which younger, cell-phone-only voters show up.
But aside from the weird methodology, check out the published crosstabs:
There's a lot of room for movement there, but there is virtually no way Emmer picks up significant enough ground among independent voters to make a dent in the overall results. Keep in mind that this is a mid-term election, and the non-partisan vote is generally going to be a lot lower than it is in presidential years, so given a normal partisan breakdown, or even a slightly GOP-leaning one, Emmer has a LOT of ground to make up.
2. The gender gap: MPR's writeup indicates that there's no significant gender gap -- that women are currently favoring Mark Dayton by a similar margin to men favoring Tom Emmer. However, what they fail to mention directly is that the sample includes 52% women (about normal for Minnesota) which is yet another built-in advantage for Dayton. Again, given a more reasonable partisan sample, this will go straight through to the final results of this election.
3. Age gap? MPR doesn't appear to have published the support breakdowns by age, only the sample sizes -- which look weird in and of themselves, since it's a decent bet the senior vote will be bigger than this poll indicates. If it is, it's another good bet that those voters will go with Dayton in big numbers, especially outside the city -- as we found in the DFL primary, these voters are more likely than not to go with the name they know and trust, and that is Mark Dayton.
Again, if it takes a huge GOP over-sample to get Tom Emmer up to a bare tie, I think Mark Dayton is in pretty darned good shape right now.
At a press conference today, Luke Hellier of Minnesota Democrats Exposed was allowed to ask a "gotcha" question of DFL gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton, and tripped him up a little bit. Bravo, Luke. Glad to see you can read so well from a script that came from...who knows where.
There are some bigger issues here:
1. The real screw-up here is on the part of the organizers, whether that be the Dayton campaign staff, the DFL, or whoever was running the show, in allowing a publicly known Republican blogger, activist, and operative in the room, let alone into a position where he could open his mouth.
2. Pat Kessler asking a follow-on question to something asked by a publicly known Republican operative in such a setting is absolutely preposterous, and truly bends the standards of journalistic decency. Kessler is a good reporter, but this was just absolutely stupid.
3. The money quote from Dayton in the exchange is unlikely to get much play from the likes of MDE:
I just think it's way out of bounds to in terms of what people care about in this election.
People are hurting, and Dayton actually has proposals on the table for helping Minnesota get back on the right track economically (which Emmer does not, beyond "MORE OF WHAT PAWLENTY GAVE US"). So obviously this is how the GOP and Team Emmer think they're going to win: by talking about decade-old records from Dayton's divorce.
It's a pretty good example of the Chewbacca Defense, really: throw as much disjointed, irrelevant information at the wall and hope the jury is so confused that they don't notice you're an idiot, and thus acquit elect your guy who still thinks the waitstaff at your local restaurant are overpaid.
Pitiful. Disgusting and totally in character, but pitiful.
Republican MN-GOV candidate Tom Emmer keeps talking about "re-inventing" government. He has a hard time getting very specific though it certainly sounds like he'd eliminate a lot if allowed. I've also argued that he's incoherent on economic policy and job creation. Furthermore, he's also been vague on how he'd solve our budget deficit other than more cuts and lotsa "re-invention."
So ponder this:
Fire departments around the nation are cutting jobs, closing firehouses and increasingly resorting to "rolling brownouts" in which they shut different fire companies on different days as the economic downturn forces many cities and towns to make deep cuts that are slowing their responses to fires and other emergencies.
Philadelphia began rolling brownouts this month, joining cities from Baltimore to Sacramento that now shut some units every day. San Jose, Calif., laid off 49 firefighters last month. And Lawrence, Mass., north of Boston, has laid off firefighters and shut down half of its six firehouses, forcing the city to rely on help from neighboring departments each time a fire goes to a second alarm.
(NY Times)
We libruls know that Emmer will just continue the same failed Pawlenty policies of slashing Local Government Aid. Our cities have already amputated limbs as a result of Pawlenty's LGA cuts. At what point will our cities join this national trend if Emmer is elected? I submit to you that it would be as soon as he would announce his 2011 budget.
Do you need any more reason to get out and work for Mark Dayton?
MN Forward, the front group for Target, Best Buy, Red Wing Shoes and other corporations MN Futures MN's Future, Jeff Larson's front group, has released it's first ad. This one Some corporate front group attacks the DFL MN-GOV candidate Mark Dayton. Obviously, I'm confused about who's behind this. No surprise here, really. It was only a matter of time.
The Dayton Campaign had the following response:
"This is just lies, lies and more lies from people who won't identify themselves. Mark has made it absolutely clear that his plan to close Minnesota's budget hole and to invest in education will raise taxes only on the richest Minnesotans. This attack is especially ironic since it's Mark's plan that will prevent property tax increases. And Mark promised in 2003 to vote against any email tax in the U.S. Senate and has never suggested it in this campaign. Mark is determined to put an end to the middle class carrying the tax burden in Minnesota--it's time everyone paid their fair share."
(Email from Dayton's Communication Director Katherine Tinucci)
-- UPDATE --
D'Oh! Sorry for the screw up folks. I confused MN Forward and MN's Future. And then I confused MN's Future with MN Future. See the comments for the embarrassing (for me) details.
It's a pretty safe bet that I'm going to vote for Mark Dayton in this year's gubernatorial race.
That being said, I'm not above offering constructive criticism to the DFL nominee.
In yesterday's debate, Dayton said "I want to make taxes more progressive. My opponents want to make them more regressive."
This is a clear statement, and it fits with the platform Dayton has espoused since the very beginning of his campaign. The guy has run numerous times, and obviously knows how to stay on-message.
The one minor problem I have with that statement is that it requires listeners to understand the value statement behind "progressive" and "regressive" tax policies. Don't get me wrong, I agree wholeheartedly, but do the words (which matter, thank you very much Frank Luntz) hit listeners in the ventricle?
"I want to make taxes more fair to the middle class. My opponents want to make them less fair." That, in my mind, would be a better use of terms that have visceral meaning to most listeners -- we all learned "fair" and "unfair" in elementary school, and understand the words without having to think about them.
It's a minor critique really -- I've been impressed at how disciplined the Dayton campaign's message machine has been, and their candidate has done a great job in debates and in public appearances of talking about his platform in a clear, forceful way. But if the last few election cycles have taught us nothing, it's that getting to voters' hearts works better than having to expend the effort necessary to get in their heads, and K.I.S.S. is, as always, a rule worth following.
Perhaps the Republican gubernatorial candidate decided that two debates was enough, and he's tired of being beaten to a rhetorical pulp on the issues that matter to Minnesota. In any case, the Detroit Lakes Tribune is concerned about the decision, and thinks Emmer should reconsider:
When it comes to rural issues, Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer hasn't exactly been reassuring in his campaign so far.
He plans to skip a candidate forum sponsored by the Coalition of Greater Minnesota Cities on Thursday in Winona.
DFLer Mark Dayton and Independent Tom Horner will be there. Emmer should too.
Especially since he aims to solve the state's $6 billion budget gap through spending cuts - so far, without giving specifics.
It doesn't take a math professor to figure it out: If Emmer wins, cities can kiss goodbye to what's left of their Local Government Aid from the state, and counties can do the same thing with what's left of their state aid.
The programs - designed to keep property taxes under control in outstate Minnesota - have already suffered disproportionate cuts in recent years, particularly through Gov. Tim Pawlenty's unallotment process.
It's a safe bet that they will be the first cuts that will be made by someone looking to slice his way out of a $6 billion hole.
Taken by themselves, newspapers in rural Minnesota don't have huge readership. But their readership is loyal as all get-out, and there are lots of these papers around the state. If Emmer decides to throw in the towel in addressing the issues that matter most to Greater Minnesota, and he's not planning to compete too hard for the few Republican votes remaining in the big cities, it's difficult to see how he plans to win the gubernatorial race.
Yeh! 10 million Dollars and the DFL has a new candidate for Governor. Well actually its an old candidate that's been running for office since the Carter Administration, but lets all pull together behind our favorite rusty but trusty trust fund baby and his sympathies for "The Less Fortunate" among us. (among us or is it actually us?). Now I've learned why they call us "limousine Liberals".
Another thing I've learned is that the wealthiest members of our Minnesota DFL care so much about liberal causes that they will spend any amount necessary to get themselves elected to high office. That kind of altruism really warms the heart, doesn't it? I know its all water under the bridge now but did Dayton or Entenza really think that Margaret would be such a horrible governor that they had to spend millions of dollars to prevent her from getting elected? Is their sense of self-importance so inflated that they believed they would be millions of dollars better that RT or Rukavina or any other of the dozen or so candidates that ran for this office?
What I'm getting at here is opportunity costs. The real question of whether or not these guys are really necessary if there going to spend all their money to promote their own ambitions rather than promoting the causes they speak so passionately about?
-----10 MILLION DOLLARS?!!!--------
Can you imagine what one tenth of that kinda money would do for one of our grass-roots organizations.ReNew Minnesota or Growth and Justice .org or PassMHP or Dumpbachman.com or MN Budget Bites or Veterans for Peace; any one of these organizations could be a powerhouse for public debate on progressive issues with a few $100K kick in the pants. The TEA Party got started with just 300,000 dollars. These guys spend over $9 Million. ...ON A PRIMARY.
If I learned anything from the healthcare debate last summer its that pubic opinion is a lot more effective than public office. Democrats had the largest congressional majority of any party in the last 100 years and we couldn't get a damned thing done because a couple thousand hysterical survivalist and shut-ins took to the streets armed with a well orchestrated mis-information campaign and their 2nd amendment rights and they scared the living re-election hopes out of a few key senators. Now THAT'S how you bring change to Washington.
I was 14 the first time Reagan was elected President and just old enough to start paying attention to political ads and news cuts. What I've seen in the 30 years since is a group of paranoid malcontents with completely wacked out ideas that NOBODY would ever go for, become the dominant force of political ideology and pubic opinion. HOW THE F*%# DID THAT HAPPEN? Well, that's another thing I learned but this one over time. Bare with me here for a minute if you will.
HOW TO MAKE YOUR CRAZY IDEA A "HOT TOPIC" -101
compliments of the republican play book
1) Hire a professor on a fellowship to teach a class on your idea
2) Give scholarships to students to take the class
3) Pay the 'best students' to be research assistants for the Prof.s book
4) Buy the entire 1st printing of the book so it becomes an instant best seller
5) Send the, now best selling, author/professor/paid lackey on a book tour of the talk show circuit.
VOILA! your once crazy idea is now the HOT TOPIC that the public is demanding action on RIGHT NOW!
Of course I'm just a rookie at this stuff so I don't know for sure if spending $10 million for a gout stricken, manic depressive, alcoholic, trust fund baby is gonna pay off or not. So, I'm just gonna keep plugging away and hope that I learn something new in the process. If I do, I'll do my best to let you know about it.
Courtesy of the UpTake, we have a great way to start the week: with Tom Emmer apparently getting himself confused about his own record on important issues.
In last week's debate with DFL candidate Mark Dayton, the candidates discussed the constitutional amendment which dedicated a portion of the state sales tax to arts and outoors programs:
On Saturday while debating before outdoor enthusiasts at Game Fair, Emmer said he was no longer in favor of repealing the legacy amendment.
DFL candidate for Governor Mark Dayton welcomed Emmer's change, but called it a "deathbed conversion" and remarked that deathbed conversions seldom last if the patient recovers.
Emmer said he was against the legacy amendment because "I didn't agree on putting the tax in...into our constitution." However, in 2008 Emmer sponsored a bill that did put a sales tax into the Minnesota constitution. HF3035 was never passed, but it called for a constitutional amendment that would require the sales tax on items used for fishing to be dedicated to game and fish programs.
You get that? Emmer said Saturday that he didn't support enshrining the sales tax in the Minnesota constitution, but as recently as two years ago he sponsored a bill that did just that.
This is the same candidate who said recently that he supported a new Minnesota G.I. bill -- one much like the one which he opposed in the legislature and which was signed into law over his "no" vote.
There's a rather startling pattern emerging with Emmer's campaign: one of a candidate who is both way too focused on instilling fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the electorate, and simply unprepared to discuss his own record honestly and clearly.
Not Governor material, at any rate. Bravo to Sen. Dayton for calling a spade a spade and nailing Emmer for his "deathbed conversion" on the issue.
The race for Minnesota's next Governor and the DFL has again taken another very interesting turn. The DFL primary election that Mark Dayton won says a lot about what has been in the minds of Minnesota's DFL voters. I have some thoughts of my own about why perhaps this happened. Whether this diary gets front paged or not in the end is not why I am writing this. I am writing to put my thoughts out there and see what if any other readers think.
Clean Water Action of MN endorsed Mark Dayton today. CWA is a member-driven environmental education and advocacy group. They are quite effective at turning out the environmental vote for candidates they endorse.
"We screened the three DFL candidates a few months ago," Program Coordinator Dan Andresen said. "Afterwards, our Board of Directors decided all three were great environmental candidates so we waited until after the primary to make a final decision."
"Mark Dayton is the kind of leader we need in Minnesota to preserve our rivers, lakes and streams for future generations and to protect our health from toxic pollution," said Deanna White, State Director of Clean Water Action.
Mark Dayton has also been a champion to protect vulnerable populations from toxic pollution. He was a co-sponsor of legislation to address the impacts of environmental hazards in poor communities and improve environmental quality for all. He also voted against a continued reliance on dirty fossil fuels and advocated for clean, sustainable energy choices.
The difference between Mark Dayton and his Republican opponent, State Representative Tom Emmer, is striking. As a member of the Minnesota House of Representatives, Tom Emmer has repeatedly voted against measures to protect our environment and our health. Tom Emmer voted against the 2007 Renewable Energy Standard and voted against the 2008 Clean Water Land and Legacy Amendment bill, which was overwhelming approved by a majority of Minnesotans. Tom Emmer also was one of only five House members to vote against 2009 legislation banning the toxic chemical, Bisphenol-A (BPA), from baby bottles and sippy cups sold in Minnesota.
(CWA press release email)
After Mark Dayton was declared the victor in the DFL primary yesterday, the dead-tree media immediately started pushing the theme that the two major parties had picked candidates from their ideological poles, begging their readers to whine for a better option.
This kind of valueless, factless statement does a disservice to readers, citizens, and voters everywhere.
Tom Emmer has repeatedly made clear that he is from the conservative wing of what is now an extremely conservative, small-tent party. He advocates tax cuts for the rich, tip penalties for working class servers, and deregulating business to turn Minnesota into a prairieland banana republic. Emmer is an extremist, and proud of it.
But what exactly about Dayton's platform is extreme, I ask the media? He advocates raising taxes on the rich, including himself, so that everyone up and down the economic scale pays the same effective tax rate. That's extreme? I call that fair, common-sense populism. Like the candidates he defeated in Tuesday's primary, Dayton advocates for expanding renewable energy solutions -- that's extreme? I call that smart, especially given that we have more and more proof every day that big investments in green energy can yield concrete benefits.
Dayton's platform is largely common-sense progressive solutions to pull the state out of the mess caused by too many years of the same Pawlentyism a Governor Emmer would continue and expand.
In short, there's nothing about Dayton's platform or background that makes him anywhere near the polar opposite of Tom Emmer's self-aggrandizing extremism; quite the contrary. The Twin Cities media does itself, its readers, and the entire state of Minnesota a disservice by sexing up the story of this election by trying to pitch it as such a matchup.
And putting recently-kind-of-not-really-a-Republican-consultant-anymore-but-now-third-party candidate Tom Horner in the amorphous, squishy middle of that analysis just makes it all the more useless.
We can, we must demand better from our news media.
Since Mark Dayton won the primary against the best efforts of the DFL, I was wondering about if and how the Dayton campaign would use one particular tool the DFL has at it's disposal -- the Coordinated Campaign. The CC is both a powerful tool and often maligned. It's organized so that the top of the ticket helps the down ticket races.
Dayton Campaign Manager Dana Anderson said that they would be using the CC.
"We are looking forward to working with the Coordinated Campaign to elect the entire DFL ticket," Anderson said. "However, we cannot comment on specifics until we have had a chance to sit down with Brian Melendez and other DFL Party leaders to discuss."
I was curious because I've heard plenty of stories about the '08 campaign and Ciresi people in the CC. The CC in '08 was pretty much a disaster. I'm hoping and praying things go better this year as I really, really, really, really wanna win the Governor's race.
"I just spoke with Mark Dayton and congratulated him on winning the DFL primary. I offered him my full support. He will make an excellent governor.
"I am so grateful for all of the hard work of our volunteers and supporters over the last twelve months. This was a people-powered, grassroots campaign and we should all be proud of what we achieved together.
"In Minnesota we value every person's voice and count every person's vote. And that's what happened this election.
"Today we will come together as DFLers. We will unite behind Mark Dayton, and beat Tom Emmer in November."
The results are (almost) in, and they're clear: You, as a community, are awesome.
Tallies (with 98% of precincts reporting):
Candidate
Actual
Avg. Pred.
Error
Dayton
41.13%
39.93%
0.24
Kelliher
39.93%
39.51%
0.42
Entenza
18.99%
18.23%
0.76
According to the scoring rules for our contest, that's a total error of 1.41 -- as a group, you absolutely nailed this election. Average predicted turnout was 367,601, which is a bit lower than the actual 437,571 which have been counted so far, but I won't hold that against you.
And drumroll please....our winner of fabulous prizes is....
dgerber, who predicted a final outcome as follows:
Candidate
Actual
dgerber
Error
Dayton
41.13%
39.80%
1.33
Kelliher
39.93%
39.90%
0.03
Entenza
18.99%
20.30%
2.07
A smidge high on Entenza, but dgerber nailed MAK's result closer than anyone else, and had a total error of just 3.43. Honorable mentions go to Iams712 whose Dayton prediction of 41.25% was within 0.12 of the final result, TonyAngelo who pegged Entenza at 18.25, and TonyAngelo again for his turnout prediction of 446,887, just 2,429 votes over where we currently stand (and likely to get closer as the final, final results come in.
Congrats to our winner and thanks to everyone who participated!
In last week's debate with DFL candidate Mark Dayton, the candidates discussed the constitutional amendment which dedicated a portion of the state sales tax to arts and outoors programs:
Clean Water Action of MN endorsed Mark Dayton today. CWA is a member-driven environmental education and advocacy group. They are quite effective at turning out the environmental vote for candidates they endorse.
