I’m not letting myself actually get optimistic, yet. From my own perspective (which should never be regarded as a source of anything like claims to complete, final, and absolute truth), my #1 lesson from 2016 is that the overall socio-political intelligence in this country is less than I had fondly believed it to be. But certainly the signs going forward could be a lot worse.
The SurveyMonkey results put Trump’s total approval rating for 2017 at 42 percent, with 56 percent disapproving. That’s slightly higher than, but within range of, other major public surveys.
In the 2016 election, exit polls found that Trump’s best group was whites without a four-year college degree; he carried 66 percent of them. But his approval among them in the 2017 SurveyMonkey average slipped to 56 percent. In 2016, whites with at least a four-year college degree gave Trump 48 percent of their votes. But in the 2017 average, just 40 percent approved of Trump’s performance, while a resounding 60 percent disapproved.
Layering in gender and age underscores voters’ retreat. Trump in 2016 narrowly won younger whites. But he now faces crushing disapproval ratings ranging from 62 percent to 76 percent among three big groups of white Millennials: women with and without a college degree, and men with a degree. Even among white Millennial men without a degree, his most natural supporters, Trump only scores a 49-49 split.
OK, if you want to get with an additional, kind of upbeat perspective (from Mother Jones), here you are. But I can’t help but go back to how confident I was of an historic blue wave when it became clear that Trump really would be the GOP presidential candidate.