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Which Minnesota congressional incumbents will be reelected?

by Dan Burns on May 6, 2014 · 10 comments

mndistrictsAccording to the source I’m talking about here, all of them. I’m listing Minnesota’s congressional incumbents, and their chances of reelection per the Washington Post’s “Election Lab.” Given that we’re still half a year away, nobody is calling this stuff definitive. I will note that on the whole WaPo polling tends to be pretty good, though its neocon-leaning “analysis” often isn’t. So, make of it what you will, or ignore it altogether.

MN-05 Ellison (D) – 100%
MN-02 Kline (R) – 99%
MN-03 Paulsen (R) – 99%
MN-04 McCollum (D) – 97%
MN-06 GOP candidate – 94%
MN-08 Nolan (D) – 84%
MN-01 Walz (D) – 79%
MN-07 Peterson (D) – 68%
A few remarks:
– John Kline at 99% is utter BS, and makes you wonder about this whole thing.
– They have Rick Nolan at a strong 84%. Apparently they’re as unimpressed with the GOP contender, Stewart Mills III, as I am. My gut feeling right now is Nolan at 70%, give or take. Repeat the mid-term mantra: “turnout, turnout, turnout…”
– Apparently, anything under 75% made the “Key Races” list, and that’s where they’ve got Collin Peterson. I doubt it. 90% is more like it.

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